New modelling from the Burnet Institute suggests NSW has not reached its peak and only tough new measures can slow the spread of Covid-19.
In the big picture, NSW had a better day today.
Daily Covid-19 case numbers were down again to 1127, continuing a trend that has led some to believe the state has reached its peak.
But new modelling from the Burnet Institute suggests otherwise.
Instead, it predicts that without tough new restrictions including closing Bunnings and introducing a curfew, cases will rise to 4000 per day by the end of the month.
In the research, published here, Senior Principal Research Fellow Allan Saul, Director and CEO Brendan Crabb and Head of HIV/STI Research Mark Stoove write that 12 local government areas locked down the hardest hold clues for how to keep Delta at bay.
They say that a curfew and other restrictions introduced on August 23 in 12 LGAs of concern “has worked to halt the rise in cases”.
Meanwhile, cases continue to grow outside those LGAs, the researchers say.
The 12 LGAs of concern are Bayside, Blacktown, Burwood, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Fairfield, Georges River, Liverpool, Parramatta, Strathfield and Penrith.
In those areas, the NSW Government went harder than anywhere else. It has been a sore point, especially as crowds flocked to beaches outside those LGAs during warmer weather over the weekend.
The Burnet Institute research says that “without the additional restrictions introduced on 23 August, the outbreak would have continued with close to an exponential increase”.
They said vaccines were working to stem growth but it was only part of the solution.
“Interestingly, outside these 12 LGAs, there was a gradual slowing of the growth rate that very closely matched the decrease in growth expected from increased vaccine coverage – but no sign of the abrupt change seen in the 12 LGAs of concern,” the researchers wrote.
They warned that gains in those 12 LGAs “are readily reversible” if restrictions are lifted too soon.
“Covid-19 cases could rapidly increase again in these 12 LGAs.”
The researchers are calling for greater restrictions “such as curfews and restricting retail outlets such as hardware stores to click-and-collect only — in at least in some of the LGAs with higher growth rates to curb this growth”.
They say it is not yet clear how well vaccines work to reduce transmission of the highly-transmissible Delta variant, meaning other states should tread carefully.
“As low case numbers remain a crucial component of a safe exit, ‘lockdown’ restrictions will be important for some time yet to maintain these lower levels in NSW and Victoria.
“States and regions that have no community transmission should fiercely protect that status until vaccine levels reach very high levels or else, they may also face stringent restrictions.”
The NSW Government has foreshadowed an easing of restrictions when 70 per cent of the adult population has received two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine.
The road map out of lockdowns relies modelling prepared for all the states and territories.
But critics of the NSW plan say it is using a model that was predicated on current restrictions remaining in place.
Epidemiologist Raina MacIntyre wrote in The Conversation: “The national plan was based on the assumption there would be just 30 cases when restrictions were lifted. However, NSW may have cases in the hundreds or thousands when restrictions are relaxed.”
She said research from her team at UNSW “shows if current restrictions are relaxed while a large proportion of the community is unvaccinated, a larger, second peak may occur that may overwhelms our hospitals”.
“If the first relaxation of restrictions occurs around October 18, our modelling predicts a second, larger peak will occur between December 24-29 2021,” she wrote.
“If restrictions are only relaxed around November 6 when the 80% target is met, the peak occurs later, between January 6-12 2022 instead of around Christmas Day.
“Covid-19 will find under-vaccinated pockets and communities, whether it be disadvantaged urban communities or remote Aboriginal communities like Wilcannia, which had a 7 per cent rate of full vaccination when the Sydney outbreak arrived there.”
The Australian Medical Association has also called on NSW to revise its plans to open at 70 per cent double vaccinated.
“NSW is right to ease restrictions slowly and to limit changes to people who are fully vaccinated. However, the key problem facing NSW is that it is looking to ease restrictions when case numbers are likely to be too high,” AMA President Dr Omar Khorshid said.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMioAFodHRwczovL3d3dy5uZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9uYXRpb25hbC9uc3ctYWN0L25ld3MvYnVybmV0LWluc3RpdHV0ZS1yZWxlYXNlcy1uZXctbW9kZWxsaW5nLWNhbGxzLWZvci1ncmVhdGVyLXJlc3RyaWN0aW9ucy9uZXdzLXN0b3J5L2Q5ZWNiNjFkNjU2YTljYWUxMWVhYmQ4NTIxNzdhOWNj0gGkAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm5ld3MuY29tLmF1L25hdGlvbmFsL25zdy1hY3QvbmV3cy9idXJuZXQtaW5zdGl0dXRlLXJlbGVhc2VzLW5ldy1tb2RlbGxpbmctY2FsbHMtZm9yLWdyZWF0ZXItcmVzdHJpY3Rpb25zL25ld3Mtc3RvcnkvZDllY2I2MWQ2NTZhOWNhZTExZWFiZDg1MjE3N2E5Y2M_YW1w?oc=5
2021-09-14 06:13:55Z
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